feat: show score achievement probabilities in leader rankings

UPDATES.md

@@ -10,6 +10,8 @@ updatedAt: 2026-09-07T13:44:23+09:00
 
 리더와 분석 조건, 합산 레이팅과 상위 3곡을 요약해 보여주며, 모바일에서는 추천곡을 카드 형태로 확인할 수 있습니다. 계산 기준은 펼쳐서 확인할 수 있습니다.
 
+추천곡마다 최고점 및 최고점의 99%·95% 이상 달성 확률을 표시합니다. 상세 배치에서도 같은 확률을 확인할 수 있으며, 최고점은 정확 계산, 99%·95% 이상은 25,000회 반복 계산을 사용합니다.
+
 ‘최대 컴퓨팅 자원 활용’을 켜면 기기의 논리 코어 수에 맞춰 여러 채보를 동시에 계산합니다. 동시 계산 수와 전체 진행률을 표시하며, 취소하거나 입력 조건을 바꾸면 모든 계산을 중단합니다.
 
 ### 배치 분석의 인게임 1노트 점수 표시

src/lib/components/LeaderSongRanking.svelte

@@ -4,12 +4,13 @@
   import { loadExactSongChart } from '$lib/data/chart-loader.ts';
   import { perfectNoteScoreFromPower } from '$lib/engine/score.ts';
   import { leaderRating, leaderRatingCharts, rankSongCharts, rankSongs, songRating } from '$lib/engine/song-rating.ts';
-  import type { ExactOptimizationResult, OptimizerCard } from '$lib/engine/types.ts';
+  import type { ExactOptimizationResult, OptimizerCard, ScoreAchievementProbabilities } from '$lib/engine/types.ts';
   import { createScoreOptimizerWorker } from '$lib/workers/create-score-optimizer-worker.ts';
 
   type Chart = (typeof catalog.charts)[number];
   type Context = { cards: OptimizerCard[]; overallPower: number; directSongScoreBonusPercent: number };
-  type Row = Chart & { result: ExactOptimizationResult; overallPower: number; theoreticalMaxScore: number; expectedScore: number };
+  type Evaluation = { result: ExactOptimizationResult; achievementProbabilities: ScoreAchievementProbabilities };
+  type Row = Chart & Evaluation & { overallPower: number; theoreticalMaxScore: number; expectedScore: number };
   export let charts: Chart[];
   export let leaderId: string;
   export let leaderName: string;
@@ -17,7 +18,7 @@
   export let inputKey: string;
   export let disabled = false;
   export let getContext: (chart: Chart) => Context;
-  export let onSelect: (chart: Chart, result: ExactOptimizationResult, overallPower: number) => void;
+  export let onSelect: (chart: Chart, result: ExactOptimizationResult, overallPower: number, probabilities: ScoreAchievementProbabilities) => void;
 
   const difficulty = 'both';
   let running = false;
@@ -100,7 +101,7 @@
           try {
             const chart = await loadExactSongChart(summary.path);
             if (id !== runId) return;
-            const result = await new Promise<ExactOptimizationResult>((resolve, reject) => {
+            const { result, achievementProbabilities } = await new Promise<Evaluation>((resolve, reject) => {
               rejectJob = reject;
               pendingJobs.add(reject);
               jobWorker = createScoreOptimizerWorker();
@@ -110,19 +111,22 @@
                 if (event.data.type === 'progress') {
                   const progress = event.data.progress;
                   activeJobs = { ...activeJobs, [jobIndex]: { title,
-                    fraction: Math.min(1, Math.max(0, progress.evaluatedCandidates / Math.max(1, progress.totalCandidates))) } };
-                } else if (event.data.type === 'result') resolve(event.data.result);
+                    fraction: .9 * Math.min(1, Math.max(0, progress.evaluatedCandidates / Math.max(1, progress.totalCandidates))) } };
+                } else if (event.data.type === 'probability-start') {
+                  activeJobs = { ...activeJobs, [jobIndex]: { title: `${title} · 확률 계산`, fraction: .9 } };
+                } else if (event.data.type === 'result') resolve({ result: event.data.result, achievementProbabilities: event.data.achievementProbabilities });
                 else if (event.data.type === 'error') reject(new Error(event.data.message));
               };
               jobWorker.onerror = () => reject(new Error('계산 작업을 실행하지 못했습니다.'));
               jobWorker.postMessage({
                 type: 'optimize-exact', cards: context.cards, chart,
                 perfectNoteScore: perfectNoteScoreFromPower(context.overallPower, chart.scoreRatio),
-                directSongScoreBonusPercent: context.directSongScoreBonusPercent
+                directSongScoreBonusPercent: context.directSongScoreBonusPercent,
+                includeAchievementProbabilities: true
               });
             });
             if (id !== runId) return;
-            rows = [...rows, { ...summary, result, overallPower: context.overallPower,
+            rows = [...rows, { ...summary, result, achievementProbabilities, overallPower: context.overallPower,
               theoreticalMaxScore: result.theoreticalMaxScore, expectedScore: result.expectedScore }];
           } catch (error) {
             if (id !== runId) return;
@@ -154,6 +158,13 @@
   }
 
   const format = (value: number) => Math.round(value).toLocaleString('ko-KR');
+  function probabilityLabel(value: number): string {
+    if (value <= 0) return '0%';
+    if (value < 0.000001) return '<0.0001%';
+    if (value < 0.0001) return `${(value * 100).toFixed(4)}%`;
+    if (value < 0.01) return `${(value * 100).toFixed(2)}%`;
+    return `${(value * 100).toFixed(1)}%`;
+  }
 
   function changePage(value: number): void {
     pageNumber = Math.max(1, Math.min(pageCount, value));
@@ -218,14 +229,19 @@
     <div class="list-heading"><h3>추천 순위 <span>{rankings.length}</span></h3><p>예상 고점 레이팅순 <span>·</span> 5개씩 보기</p></div>
     <div class="table-scroll" bind:this={resultList}>
       <table>
-        <thead><tr><th scope="col">순위</th><th scope="col">곡 / 난이도</th><th scope="col">고점 레이팅</th><th scope="col">예상 고점</th><th scope="col">해당 배치 평균</th><th scope="col"><span class="sr-only">상세 배치</span></th></tr></thead>
+        <thead><tr><th scope="col">순위</th><th scope="col">곡 / 난이도</th><th scope="col">고점 레이팅</th><th scope="col">예상 고점</th><th scope="col">해당 배치 평균</th><th scope="col">점수 달성 확률</th><th scope="col"><span class="sr-only">상세 배치</span></th></tr></thead>
         <tbody>{#each pageRows as row, index}<tr class:top={topSongs.includes(row)}>
           <td class="rank-cell"><span class="rank-number" class:first={(pageNumber - 1) * pageSize + index === 0}>{(pageNumber - 1) * pageSize + index + 1}</span></td>
           <td class="song"><strong>{row.title}</strong><div class="song-meta"><span class="difficulty" class:expert={row.difficulty === 'expert'}>{row.difficulty === 'expert' ? 'Expert' : 'Hard'} <b>{row.difficultyLevel}</b></span>{#if topSongs.includes(row)}<span class="counted">합산 대상</span>{/if}{#if row.scoreCalibrationSource !== 'formula-v1' && row.scoreCalibrationSource !== 'measured'}<span class="estimated">점수 계수 추정</span>{/if}</div></td>
           <td class="chart-rating"><span class="mobile-label">레이팅</span><strong>{format(songRating(row.theoreticalMaxScore))}</strong></td>
           <td class="maximum-score"><span class="mobile-label">예상 고점</span>{format(row.theoreticalMaxScore)}</td>
           <td class="average-score"><span class="mobile-label">배치 평균</span>{format(row.expectedScore)}</td>
-          <td class="row-action"><button type="button" disabled={stale || disabled || running} on:click={() => onSelect(row, row.result, row.overallPower)}>배치 보기 <span aria-hidden="true">→</span></button></td>
+          <td class="probability-cell"><div class="achievement-grid">
+            <div title={`${format(row.theoreticalMaxScore)}점 달성 확률`}><span>최고점</span><strong>{probabilityLabel(row.achievementProbabilities.maximum)}</strong></div>
+            <div title={`${format(Math.ceil(row.theoreticalMaxScore * .99))}점 이상 달성 확률`}><span>99% 이상</span><strong>{probabilityLabel(row.achievementProbabilities.atLeast99Percent)}</strong></div>
+            <div title={`${format(Math.ceil(row.theoreticalMaxScore * .95))}점 이상 달성 확률`}><span>95% 이상</span><strong>{probabilityLabel(row.achievementProbabilities.atLeast95Percent)}</strong></div>
+          </div></td>
+          <td class="row-action"><button type="button" disabled={stale || disabled || running} on:click={() => onSelect(row, row.result, row.overallPower, row.achievementProbabilities)}>배치 보기 <span aria-hidden="true">→</span></button></td>
         </tr>{/each}</tbody>
       </table>
     </div>
@@ -251,6 +267,7 @@
     <div>
       <p>멤버 5명과 리더·의상·성장 설정을 반영하고, 곡마다 스페셜 순서와 허용된 빈도 감소를 최적화합니다. 가창 보너스는 모든 곡에 10%를 적용합니다.</p>
       <p>ALL PERFECT·스킬 최대 발동 기준의 예상 고점 순위입니다. 곡별 Hard·Expert를 각각 표시하며, 최대 20개 결과를 5개씩 확인할 수 있습니다. 상위 3곡 합계는 같은 곡에서 고점이 높은 결과 하나만 집계합니다.</p>
+      <p>점수 달성 확률은 해당 추천 배치에서 모든 노트를 PERFECT로 처리할 때의 액티브 발동 확률을 반영합니다. 최고점 확률은 정확 계산, 최고점의 99%·95% 이상 확률은 25,000회 반복 계산값입니다.</p>
       <p>곡 레이팅 = 점수 ÷ 5,000 올림 · <a href="https://dreams.wf-calc.net/wiki/live" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer">계산 기준 (비공식 연구 자료) ↗</a>. 실제 플레이 결과와 차이가 있을 수 있습니다. 가창 멤버가 등록되지 않은 곡은 제외합니다.</p>
     </div>
   </details>
@@ -353,6 +370,11 @@
   .chart-rating strong { color: #f1b0ce; font-size: 23px; letter-spacing: -.025em; }
   .maximum-score { color: #cdd5e1; }
   .average-score { color: #8e9aaf; }
+  .achievement-grid { display: grid; grid-template-columns: repeat(3, minmax(56px, 1fr)); gap: 10px; text-align: right; }
+  .achievement-grid > div { display: grid; gap: 7px; }
+  .achievement-grid span { color: #9690a6; font-size: 10px; }
+  .achievement-grid strong { color: #cbb4db; font-size: 12px; font-weight: 650; }
+  .achievement-grid > div:first-child strong { color: #f1b0ce; }
   .row-action button { padding: 9px 11px; background: transparent; white-space: nowrap; font-size: 11px; }
   .row-action button > span { margin-left: 8px; color: #bd8ea8; }
   .mobile-label { display: none; }
@@ -431,6 +453,9 @@
     .row-action { grid-column: 3; grid-row: 2 / 4; align-self: end; }
     .row-action button { padding: 7px 8px; font-size: 10px; }
     .row-action button > span { display: none; }
+    .probability-cell { grid-column: 1 / -1; grid-row: 4; padding-top: 11px; margin-top: 5px; border-top: 1px solid #3c3342; }
+    .achievement-grid { gap: 12px; text-align: center; }
+    .achievement-grid > div { gap: 5px; }
     .list-footer { gap: 5px; }
     .pagination { gap: 2px; }
     .pagination button { width: 29px; height: 31px; }

src/lib/workers/score-optimizer.worker.ts

@@ -79,6 +79,7 @@ self.onmessage = (event: MessageEvent<OptimizeRequest | CombinationRequest | Ach
       const result = optimizeExactOrderAndCooldowns(event.data.cards, event.data.chart, options);
       let achievementProbabilities: ScoreAchievementProbabilities | undefined;
       if (event.data.includeAchievementProbabilities) {
+        self.postMessage({ type: 'probability-start' });
         const orderedCards = cardsForResult(event.data.cards, result);
         achievementProbabilities = estimateScoreAchievementProbabilities(
           orderedCards,

src/routes/analysis/+page.svelte

@@ -522,12 +522,12 @@
       directSongScoreBonusPercent: context.boardEffects.directSongScoreBonusPercent };
   }
 
-  async function showRatingResult(chart: NonNullable<typeof selectedChart>, rankingResult: ExactOptimizationResult, power: number) {
+  async function showRatingResult(chart: NonNullable<typeof selectedChart>, rankingResult: ExactOptimizationResult, power: number, probabilities: ScoreAchievementProbabilities) {
     ratingResultKey = ratingInputKey;
     selectedSongId = chart.songId;
     difficulty = chart.difficulty as DifficultyKey;
     result = rankingResult;
-    achievementProbabilities = undefined;
+    achievementProbabilities = probabilities;
     clearConnectionOptimizationProposal();
     await tick();
     resultCapture = structuredClone({