feat: simulate individual active skill failures in analysis

UPDATES.md

@@ -8,6 +8,10 @@ updatedAt: 2026-09-08T12:00:00+09:00
 
 `DATA` 타카네 루이, 후와와, 모코코의 신규 5성 수영복 카드와 스킬·의상·메모리 데이터를 반영했습니다.
 
+### 액티브 미발동 시뮬레이션
+
+`NEW` 배치 분석의 카드별 액티브 구간을 클릭해 해당 발동을 제외한 예상 점수·이론상 고점과 그래프를 확인할 수 있습니다. 다시 클릭하거나 모두 복원하면 원래 결과로 돌아옵니다.
+
 ### 연결 카드 최적화의 최고점 우선 적용
 
 `FIXED` 배치 분석의 연결 카드 최적화에서 파란 영역의 연결 카드가 인근의 큰 발동률 노드를 반드시 포함하도록 했습니다. 이 조건 안에서 최고점을 최우선으로 비교하고, 최고점이 같을 때 액티브 발동률 UP 합계를 비교합니다. 조건을 충족할 수 없거나 최종 재계산에서 기존 배치보다 최고점이 낮아지면 기존 배치를 유지합니다.

src/lib/engine/exact-optimizer.ts

@@ -99,10 +99,11 @@ function makeProfiles(order: readonly OptimizerCard[], chart: ExactSongChart): M
   return profiles;
 }
 
-function resultWindows(
+export function buildExactSkillWindows(
   order: readonly OptimizerCard[],
   reductions: Readonly<Record<string, CooldownReduction>>,
-  chart: ExactSongChart
+  chart: ExactSongChart,
+  excludedActiveWindows: readonly Pick<SkillWindow, 'cardId' | 'startSeconds'>[] = []
 ): { activeWindows: SkillWindow[]; effectiveActiveWindows: EffectiveSkillWindow[]; specialWindows: SkillWindow[] } {
   const activeWindows = order.flatMap((card) => {
     const interval = effectiveCooldownSeconds(card.active.cooldownSeconds, reductions[card.id] ?? 0);
@@ -143,7 +144,8 @@ function resultWindows(
     const midpoint = (startSeconds + endSeconds) / 2;
     const specialSupport = specialRate(order, chart, midpoint, 'scoreUpPercent');
     const active = activeWindows
-      .filter((window) => window.startSeconds <= midpoint && midpoint < window.endSeconds)
+      .filter((window) => window.startSeconds <= midpoint && midpoint < window.endSeconds &&
+        !excludedActiveWindows.some((excluded) => excluded.cardId === window.cardId && Math.abs(excluded.startSeconds - window.startSeconds) < 1e-9))
       .map((window) => {
         const cardIndex = orderIndex.get(window.cardId) ?? 0;
         const card = order[cardIndex];
@@ -265,7 +267,7 @@ export function optimizeExactOrderAndCooldowns(
   }
 
   if (!bestOrder || !bestReductions) throw new Error('분석 결과를 만들지 못했습니다.');
-  const windows = resultWindows(bestOrder, bestReductions, chart);
+  const windows = buildExactSkillWindows(bestOrder, bestReductions, chart);
   return {
     ...calculateExactScore(bestOrder, bestReductions, chart, options),
     order: bestOrder.map((card) => card.id),

src/lib/engine/score.test.ts

@@ -1,7 +1,7 @@
 import assert from 'node:assert/strict';
 import test from 'node:test';
 import scoreCalibrations from '../../../data/score-calibrations.json' with { type: 'json' };
-import { calculateExactScore, perfectNoteScoreFromPower, scoreRatioFromNotes } from './index.ts';
+import { buildExactSkillWindows, calculateExactScore, perfectNoteScoreFromPower, scoreRatioFromNotes } from './index.ts';
 import type { ExactSongChart, OptimizerCard } from './types.ts';
 
 const inactiveCard: OptimizerCard = {
@@ -121,3 +121,35 @@ test('등록된 실측 ratio가 모든 1노트 측정값을 재현한다', () =>
     }
   }
 });
+
+
+test('지정한 액티브만 실패 처리하고 겹친 다른 카드와 다음 발동은 유지한다', () => {
+  const strong: OptimizerCard = {
+    ...inactiveCard, id: 'strong',
+    active: { cooldownSeconds: 10, durationSeconds: 3, scoreUpPercent: 100, probabilityPercent: 50 }
+  };
+  const weak: OptimizerCard = {
+    ...inactiveCard, id: 'weak',
+    active: { cooldownSeconds: 10, durationSeconds: 3, scoreUpPercent: 50, probabilityPercent: 100 }
+  };
+  const interval = 10 / 1.04;
+  const song = chart([interval - 0.01, interval, interval + 3, interval * 2].map((timeSeconds) => ({ timeSeconds, type: 'regular' as const, isFlick: false })));
+  const reductions = { strong: 4 as const, weak: 4 as const };
+  const cards = [strong, weak];
+  const original = calculateExactScore(cards, reductions, song, { perfectNoteScore: 100 });
+  const excludedActiveWindows = [{ cardId: 'strong', startSeconds: interval }];
+  const modified = calculateExactScore(cards, reductions, song, { perfectNoteScore: 100, excludedActiveWindows });
+  assert.deepEqual(modified.notes.map((note) => note.theoreticalMaxScore), [100, 150, 100, 200]);
+  assert.deepEqual(modified.notes.map((note) => note.expectedScore), [100, 150, 100, 175]);
+  assert.equal(modified.baselineScore, original.baselineScore);
+  assert.equal(modified.scoreBySecond[9], 250);
+  assert.deepEqual(calculateExactScore(cards, reductions, song, { perfectNoteScore: 100, excludedActiveWindows: [] }), original);
+  const windows = buildExactSkillWindows(cards, reductions, song, excludedActiveWindows);
+  assert.equal(windows.effectiveActiveWindows.find((window) => window.startSeconds === interval)?.cardId, 'weak');
+  assert.equal(windows.effectiveActiveWindows.find((window) => window.startSeconds === interval * 2)?.cardId, 'strong');
+  assert.ok(windows.activeWindows.some((window) => window.cardId === 'strong' && window.startSeconds === interval));
+  const bothExcluded = [...excludedActiveWindows, { cardId: 'weak', startSeconds: interval }];
+  const noActive = calculateExactScore(cards, reductions, song, { perfectNoteScore: 100, excludedActiveWindows: bothExcluded });
+  assert.equal(noActive.notes[1].theoreticalMaxScore, noActive.notes[1].baselineScore);
+  assert.ok(!buildExactSkillWindows(cards, reductions, song, bothExcluded).effectiveActiveWindows.some((window) => window.startSeconds === interval));
+});

src/lib/engine/score.ts

@@ -95,7 +95,8 @@ function activeCandidates(
   cardsInOrder: readonly OptimizerCard[],
   reductions: Readonly<Record<string, CooldownReduction>>,
   chart: ExactSongChart,
-  timeSeconds: number
+  timeSeconds: number,
+  excludedActiveWindows: ExactScoreOptions['excludedActiveWindows']
 ): ActiveCandidate[] {
   const specialSupport = specialSupportAt(cardsInOrder, chart, timeSeconds);
   const candidates = cardsInOrder.flatMap((card, memberIndex) => {
@@ -104,6 +105,7 @@ function activeCandidates(
     if (attempt <= 0) return [];
     const interval = effectiveCooldownSeconds(card.active.cooldownSeconds, reduction);
     const activationTime = attempt * interval;
+    if (excludedActiveWindows?.some((window) => window.cardId === card.id && Math.abs(window.startSeconds - activationTime) < 1e-9)) return [];
     if (timeSeconds >= activationTime + card.active.durationSeconds) return [];
     const activationRateBonus = activationRateBonusAt(cardsInOrder, chart, activationTime);
     const probability = effectiveActiveProbability(card, activationRateBonus);
@@ -153,7 +155,7 @@ export function calculateExactScore(
       ? Math.ceil(options.perfectNoteScore * 0.1)
       : options.perfectNoteScore * (note.isFlick ? 1.05 : 1);
     const rawBaselineScore = baseNoteScore * (1 + comboBonus(combo));
-    const candidates = activeCandidates(cardsInOrder, reductions, chart, note.timeSeconds);
+    const candidates = activeCandidates(cardsInOrder, reductions, chart, note.timeSeconds, options.excludedActiveWindows);
     const baselineScore = finalNoteScore(rawBaselineScore, directBonus);
     const expectedScore = finalNoteScore(rawBaselineScore * (1 + expectedStrongestBoost(candidates)), directBonus);
     const theoreticalMaxScore = finalNoteScore(rawBaselineScore * (1 + (candidates[0]?.boost ?? 0)), directBonus);

src/lib/engine/song-score-formula.test.ts

@@ -41,13 +41,15 @@ test('공식 적용 카탈로그와 실제 채보가 같은 분모 및 환산값
       continue;
     }
     assert.equal(row.scoreCalibrationSource, 'formula-v1');
-    assert.equal(row.scoreRatio, scoreRatioFromFormula(ref));
+    assert.ok(typeof ref.liveScoreCoefficientPermil === 'number' && typeof ref.difficultyLevel === 'number');
-    assert.deepEqual(chart.scoreFormula, row.scoreFormula);
+    const formula = {
-    assert.deepEqual(chart.scoreFormula, {
       perfectNoteWeight: ref.perfectNoteWeight,
       liveScoreCoefficientPermil: ref.liveScoreCoefficientPermil,
       difficultyLevel: ref.difficultyLevel
-    });
+    };
+    assert.equal(row.scoreRatio, scoreRatioFromFormula(formula));
+    assert.deepEqual(chart.scoreFormula, row.scoreFormula);
+    assert.deepEqual(chart.scoreFormula, formula);
     assert.equal(chart.notes.length, ref.fullComboNoteCount);
     formulaCount += 1;
   }

src/lib/engine/types.ts

@@ -118,6 +118,8 @@ export type ExactScoreResult = {
 };
 
 export type ExactScoreOptions = {
+  /** 지정한 카드의 해당 발동만 실패한 것으로 계산한다. */
+  excludedActiveWindows?: readonly Pick<SkillWindow, 'cardId' | 'startSeconds'>[];
   perfectNoteScore: number;
   directSongScoreBonusPercent?: number;
 };

src/routes/analysis/+page.svelte

@@ -17,8 +17,8 @@
   import PresetManager from '$lib/components/PresetManager.svelte';
   import ScoreTimelineChart from '$lib/components/ScoreTimelineChart.svelte';
   import SongPicker from '$lib/components/SongPicker.svelte';
-  import { calculateBoardEffects, calculateExactScore, calculateUnitPower, countOptimizationCandidates, finalNoteScore, memoryParameterPermil, optimizeBoardConnectionCards, optimizeExactOrderAndCooldowns, perfectNoteScoreFromPower, toOptimizerCard } from '$lib/engine/index.ts';
+  import { buildExactSkillWindows, calculateBoardEffects, calculateExactScore, calculateUnitPower, countOptimizationCandidates, finalNoteScore, memoryParameterPermil, optimizeBoardConnectionCards, optimizeExactOrderAndCooldowns, perfectNoteScoreFromPower, toOptimizerCard } from '$lib/engine/index.ts';
-  import type { CooldownReduction, EffectiveSkillWindow, ExactOptimizationResult, ExactSongChart, OptimizableConnectionCard, OptimizationProgress, ScoreAchievementProbabilities, SkillWindow } from '$lib/engine/index.ts';
+  import type { ExactScoreOptions, OptimizerCard, CooldownReduction, EffectiveSkillWindow, ExactOptimizationResult, ExactSongChart, OptimizableConnectionCard, OptimizationProgress, ScoreAchievementProbabilities, SkillWindow } from '$lib/engine/index.ts';
   import { USER_DATA_STORAGE_KEY } from '$lib/storage/browser-storage';
   import { createScoreOptimizerWorker } from '$lib/workers/create-score-optimizer-worker.ts';
 
@@ -114,6 +114,44 @@
   let running = false;
   let progress: OptimizationProgress = { evaluatedCandidates: 0, totalCandidates: 0 };
   let result: ExactOptimizationResult | null = null;
+  let simulationContext: { cards: OptimizerCard[]; chart: ExactSongChart; options: ExactScoreOptions } | null = null;
+  let simulationBase: ExactOptimizationResult | null = null;
+  let simulatedResult: ExactOptimizationResult | null = null;
+  let excludedActiveWindows: SkillWindow[] = [];
+  $: if (result !== simulationBase) {
+    simulationBase = result;
+    simulatedResult = null;
+    excludedActiveWindows = [];
+  }
+  $: displayedResult = simulatedResult ?? result;
+
+  function isExcluded(window: SkillWindow): boolean {
+    return excludedActiveWindows.some((excluded) => excluded.cardId === window.cardId && excluded.startSeconds === window.startSeconds);
+  }
+
+  function toggleActiveWindow(window: SkillWindow): void {
+    if (!result || !simulationContext) return;
+    excludedActiveWindows = isExcluded(window)
+      ? excludedActiveWindows.filter((excluded) => excluded.cardId !== window.cardId || excluded.startSeconds !== window.startSeconds)
+      : [...excludedActiveWindows, window];
+    if (!excludedActiveWindows.length) {
+      simulatedResult = null;
+      return;
+    }
+    const { cards, chart, options } = simulationContext;
+    const order = result.order.map((id) => cards.find((card) => card.id === id)!);
+    simulatedResult = {
+      ...result,
+      ...calculateExactScore(order, result.cooldownReductions, chart, { ...options, excludedActiveWindows }),
+      ...buildExactSkillWindows(order, result.cooldownReductions, chart, excludedActiveWindows)
+    };
+  }
+
+  function resetActiveWindows(): void {
+    excludedActiveWindows = [];
+    simulatedResult = null;
+  }
+
   let ratingResultKey = '';
   let resultCapture: AnalysisCapture | null = null;
   let pendingCapture: AnalysisCapture | null = null;
@@ -176,7 +214,7 @@
   $: inGamePerfectNoteScore = finalNoteScore(perfectNoteScore, boardEffects.directSongScoreBonusPercent);
   $: scoreCalibrationLabel = selectedChart?.scoreCalibrationSource === 'formula-v1' ? '곡별 공식' : selectedChart?.scoreCalibrationSource === 'measured' ? '실측값' : '추정값';
   $: timelineDuration = selectedChart?.durationSeconds ?? 0;
-  $: displayedEffectiveActiveWindows = mergeEffectiveActiveWindows(result?.effectiveActiveWindows ?? []);
+  $: displayedEffectiveActiveWindows = mergeEffectiveActiveWindows(displayedResult?.effectiveActiveWindows ?? []);
   $: timelineTicks = buildTimelineTicks(timelineDuration);
   $: timelineWidth = Math.max(720, timelineDuration * 6);
   $: candidateCount = (() => {
@@ -749,6 +787,7 @@
         }))
       });
       const chart = await loadExactSongChart(selectedChart.path);
+      simulationContext = { cards, chart, options: { perfectNoteScore: noteScore, directSongScoreBonusPercent: songBonus } };
       progress = { evaluatedCandidates: 0, totalCandidates: countOptimizationCandidates(cards) };
       worker.postMessage({
         type: 'optimize-exact',
@@ -1037,11 +1076,11 @@
         </section>
       </div>
       <div class="score-grid">
-        <div class="score-summary"><span>예상 점수</span><strong>{result.expectedScore.toLocaleString('ko-KR')}</strong></div>
+        <div class="score-summary"><span>예상 점수</span><strong>{displayedResult!.expectedScore.toLocaleString('ko-KR')}</strong></div>
-        <div class="score-summary"><span>이론상 고점</span><strong>{result.theoreticalMaxScore.toLocaleString('ko-KR')}</strong></div>
+        <div class="score-summary"><span>이론상 고점</span><strong>{displayedResult!.theoreticalMaxScore.toLocaleString('ko-KR')}</strong></div>
         <div class="score-summary"><span>스킬 미발동 기준</span><strong>{result.baselineScore.toLocaleString('ko-KR')}</strong></div>
       </div>
-      {#if mode === 'analysis' || achievementProbabilities}
+      {#if !simulatedResult && (mode === 'analysis' || achievementProbabilities)}
       <div class="probability-grid">
         <div><span>최고점 100%</span><strong>{probabilityLabel(achievementProbabilities?.maximum)}</strong></div>
         <div><span>최고점의 99% 이상</span><strong>{probabilityLabel(achievementProbabilities?.atLeast99Percent)}</strong><small>{scoreThreshold(result.theoreticalMaxScore, 0.99)}점 이상</small></div>
@@ -1096,21 +1135,34 @@
             {#each result.order as cardId}<span><i style={`background: ${memberColor(cardId)};`}></i>{resultCardName(cardId)}</span>{/each}
           </div>
         </div>
+        {#if mode === 'analysis'}
+          <p class="simulation-guide" aria-live="polite">카드별 색칠된 구간을 클릭하면 해당 액티브만 미발동으로 계산합니다. 다시 클릭하면 복원됩니다. 배치와 쿨타임은 유지됩니다.
+            {#if excludedActiveWindows.length}
+              <strong>{excludedActiveWindows.length}회 미발동 적용 중</strong>
+              <button type="button" on:click={resetActiveWindows}>모두 복원</button>
+              <span>미발동 적용 중에는 달성 확률을 표시하지 않습니다. 분석 기록에는 원래 분석 결과가 저장됩니다.</span>
+            {/if}
+          </p>
+        {/if}
         <div class="timeline-scroll" role="region" aria-label="스킬 발동 시간대 그래프">
           <div class="timeline-canvas" style={`width: ${timelineWidth + 156}px;`}>
-            <ScoreTimelineChart notes={result.notes} durationSeconds={timelineDuration} minimumWidth={timelineWidth} timeTicks={timelineTicks} />
+            <ScoreTimelineChart notes={displayedResult!.notes} durationSeconds={timelineDuration} minimumWidth={timelineWidth} timeTicks={timelineTicks} />
             {#each result.order as cardId, slot}
               <div class="timeline-row member-row">
                 <strong class="lane-label"><small style={`--member-color: ${memberColor(cardId)};`}>{slot + 1}</small>{resultCardName(cardId)}</strong>
                 <div class="timeline-track skill-track" style={timelineTrackStyle(timelineWidth, timelineDuration)}>
                   {#each result.activeWindows.filter((window) => window.cardId === cardId) as window}
-                    <span
+                    <button
+                      type="button"
                       class="skill-window active-window"
+                      class:excluded={excludedActiveWindows.some((excluded) => excluded.cardId === window.cardId && excluded.startSeconds === window.startSeconds)}
+                      disabled={mode !== 'analysis' || !simulationContext || running}
                       style={coloredWindowStyle(window, timelineDuration)}
-                      title={`액티브 ${formatSeconds(window.startSeconds)}~${formatSeconds(window.endSeconds)} · ${window.scoreUpPercent}%`}
+                      title={`${resultCardName(cardId)} 액티브 ${formatSeconds(window.startSeconds)}~${formatSeconds(window.endSeconds)} · ${window.scoreUpPercent}% · 클릭하여 미발동/복원`}
-                      role="img"
+                      aria-label={`${resultCardName(cardId)} 액티브 ${formatSeconds(window.startSeconds)}부터 ${formatSeconds(window.endSeconds)}까지 미발동 처리`}
-                      aria-label={`액티브 ${formatSeconds(window.startSeconds)}부터 ${formatSeconds(window.endSeconds)}까지`}
+                      aria-pressed={excludedActiveWindows.some((excluded) => excluded.cardId === window.cardId && excluded.startSeconds === window.startSeconds)}
-                    ></span>
+                      on:click={() => toggleActiveWindow(window)}
+                    ></button>
                   {/each}
                 </div>
               </div>
@@ -1290,7 +1342,13 @@
   .timeline-track::before { content: ''; position: absolute; inset: 0; background: linear-gradient(90deg, rgb(255 255 255 / 9%) 1px, transparent 1px); background-size: var(--time-grid-step, 10%) 100%; pointer-events: none; }
   .skill-track { height: 36px; }
   .skill-window { position: absolute; min-width: 2px; border-radius: 3px; background: var(--member-color); }
-  .active-window { top: 12px; height: 12px; opacity: .72; }
+  .active-window { top: 8px; height: 20px; opacity: .72; padding: 0; border: 0; cursor: pointer; }
+  .active-window:hover:not(:disabled), .active-window:focus-visible { opacity: 1; outline: 2px solid #fff; outline-offset: 2px; }
+  .active-window.excluded { opacity: .28; border: 1px dashed var(--member-color); background: repeating-linear-gradient(135deg, transparent 0 3px, var(--member-color) 3px 4px); }
+  .active-window:disabled { cursor: default; }
+  .simulation-guide { color: #adb5c2; font-size: 13px; line-height: 1.7; }
+  .simulation-guide strong, .simulation-guide span { display: block; }
+  .simulation-guide button { margin: 4px 0; }
   .summary-row { background: rgb(255 255 255 / 1.5%); }
   .summary-label { color: #e1e5ec; font-weight: 800; }
   .effective-window { top: 9px; height: 18px; box-shadow: inset 0 0 0 1px rgb(255 255 255 / 28%); }