feat: show cumulative maximum score probability in timeline tooltip

src/lib/engine/score-probability.ts

@@ -62,7 +62,8 @@ function prepareModel(
   cards: readonly OptimizerCard[],
   reductions: Readonly<Record<string, CooldownReduction>>,
   chart: ExactSongChart,
-  options: ExactScoreOptions
+  options: ExactScoreOptions,
+  onNote?: (probability: number) => void
 ): PreparedProbabilityModel {
   const attempts: Attempt[] = [];
   const attemptIndexes = new Map<string, number>();
@@ -70,6 +71,8 @@ function prepareModel(
   const grouped = new Map<string, { candidates: NoteCandidate[]; scores: number[] }>();
   const clauses: number[][] = [];
   let maximumScore = 0;
+  let prefixProbability = 1;
+  let prefixClauses: number[][] = [];
 
   scoreNotes(chart).forEach((note, noteIndex) => {
     const candidates: NoteCandidate[] = [];
@@ -80,6 +83,8 @@ function prepareModel(
       const attemptNumber = Math.floor((note.timeSeconds + 1e-9) / interval);
       if (attemptNumber <= 0) return;
       const activationTime = attemptNumber * interval;
+      if (options.excludedActiveWindows?.some((window) =>
+        window.cardId === card.id && Math.abs(window.startSeconds - activationTime) < 1e-9)) return;
       if (note.timeSeconds >= activationTime + card.active.durationSeconds) return;
       const key = `${card.id}:${attemptNumber}`;
       let attemptIndex = attemptIndexes.get(key);
@@ -110,11 +115,18 @@ function prepareModel(
     ];
     maximumScore += scores[0];
 
-    if (candidates.length > 0) {
-      clauses.push(candidates
+    // No activation is required when rounding gives the baseline the same score.
+    if (scores[0] > scores[scores.length - 1]) {
+      const clause = candidates
         .filter((_, index) => scores[index] === scores[0])
-        .map((candidate) => candidate.attemptIndex));
+        .map((candidate) => candidate.attemptIndex);
+      clauses.push(clause);
+      if (onNote && !prefixClauses.some((existing) => existing.every((variable) => clause.includes(variable)))) {
+        prefixClauses = simplifyClauses([...prefixClauses, clause]);
+        prefixProbability = exactClauseProbability(prefixClauses, attempts);
+      }
     }
+    onNote?.(prefixProbability);
 
     const signature = candidates.map((candidate) => `${candidate.attemptIndex}:${candidate.boost.toPrecision(15)}`).join('|');
     const existing = grouped.get(signature);
@@ -130,6 +142,18 @@ function prepareModel(
   };
 }
 
+/** Exact cumulative maximum-score probability after each chart note, in note order. */
+export function calculateMaximumScoreProbabilityTimeline(
+  cards: readonly OptimizerCard[],
+  reductions: Readonly<Record<string, CooldownReduction>>,
+  chart: ExactSongChart,
+  options: ExactScoreOptions
+): number[] {
+  const probabilities: number[] = [];
+  prepareModel(cards, reductions, chart, options, (probability) => probabilities.push(probability));
+  return probabilities;
+}
+
 function simplifyClauses(clauses: readonly (readonly number[])[]): number[][] {
   const unique = new Map<string, number[]>();
   for (const clause of clauses) {